Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45cd4cabe721eb65523f5fffbfd409213d061ca9fb60e3172df6bfb02aedd6c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 2c | 7,120$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 0c | 4,524$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 8c | 262.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 20c | 235.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 160.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 12c | 156.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 151.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…3ae6backed No | 75c | 150.94$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 39c | 144.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 27c | 120.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 98.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 83.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 82.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 70c | 80.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 69.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 29c | 68.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 24c | 58.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…9f63backed Yes | 25c | 51.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 28c | 49.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 40.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 74c | 39.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 79c | 33.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…c757backed No | 78c | 33.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 33c | 31.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 80c | 29.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 74c | 25.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 77c | 25.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 68c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed No | 79c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.