Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5e05d0becad3e3dc52f04762f3f0231cd2588bba2407ef10f95cd143986ef19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ce0…59d5backed No | 0c | 38,472$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 6c | 761.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 9c | 619.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed No | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 139.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 132.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 128.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 11c | 122.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…0b69backed Yes | 40c | 119.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 113.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 65c | 112.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 66c | 100.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 73c | 93.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 22c | 92.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 84.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 59c | 81.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 71c | 81.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 72c | 80.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked No | 17c | 74.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 69.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 66.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 46c | 61.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 46c | 49.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes | 74c | 47.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 25c | 46.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 32c | 44.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 73c | 42.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 60c | 41.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 39.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed No | 50c | 38.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 47c | 32.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 67c | 29.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc10f…7972backed Yes | 73c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked Yes | 74c | 25.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 75c | 21.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 78c | 17.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.