AI · resolved market
Will Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan resign by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d06120edd6bc8b3119e3632562dee775f32d02627a0585f3b1d9f210b83755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 18c | 1,366$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,071$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,053$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 979$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 9c | 800$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…c822backed Yes | 14c | 719.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Yes | 10c | 577.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +367.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 12c | 511.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 15c | 506.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 10c | 499.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 13c | 299.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 10c | 257.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 249.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…9637backed Yes | 13c | 231.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 10c | 226.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 17c | 147.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…ad20backed Yes | 17c | 75.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…225dbacked Yes | 15c | 75.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…7284backed Yes | 14c | 74.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 77c | 23.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 75c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.