South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45db059b70e19470293a1713bc26f1065c6d7ad297f87ab8b8efca1015afa0d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 36c | 2,986$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.92 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 1,256$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 34c | 1,121$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.84 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…13afbacked Yes | 35c | 1,111$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.32 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 64c | 944.18$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.36 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 598.57$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.02 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed No | 64c | 382.19$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.59 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 29c | 338.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 65c | 324.19$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.47 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 31c | 304.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 258.62$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 216.72$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 10c | 186.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 64c | 180$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Yes | 29c | 165.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 66c | 154.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 33c | 148.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 136.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 64c | 134.78$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 68c | 132.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 72c | 130.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 69c | 127.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 65c | 118.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 68c | 113.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…b254backed Yes | 28c | 99.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 65c | 99.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 80c | 97.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 36c | 96.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 68c | 92.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 64c | 89.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 64c | 73.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked No | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 64c | 72.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 70c | 68.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 70c | 68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 34c | 66.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 61.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 64c | 59.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked No | 73c | 59.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 65c | 58.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 64c | 56.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 21c | 50.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Yes | 36c | 46.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 73c | 44.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 66c | 43.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed No | 73c | 40.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 64c | 37.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 64c | 36.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed No | 72c | 36.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…37e6backed No | 65c | 31.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 36c | 31.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…7d25backed No | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed No | 75c | 30.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 64c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked No | 72c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked No | 65c | 25.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 72c | 24.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…1958backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 65c | 21.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked No | 65c | 21.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +4.7wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 68c | 21.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 64c | 20.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 66c | 18.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed No | 64c | 16.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 66c | 15.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw?this page
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-03?Yes won
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.