Fifa International · resolved market
Will Croatia beat Scotland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45f40d1d989e39c2943b9868da90883798aed7795d0fe099712f554421f3610e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc4…c827backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 63c | 5,799$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.99 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 36c | 3,040$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.57 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 61c | 1,216$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 33c | 507.96$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.1 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…24abbacked Yes | 72c | 411.22$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Yes | 66c | 354.58$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 34c | 250.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…5282backed Yes | 61c | 240$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed No | 34c | 239.77$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 64c | 204.79$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 29c | 183.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed Yes | 62c | 161.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3e…21a8backed Yes | 66c | 149.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked No | 54c | 144.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 69c | 144.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…23a2backed No | 39c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed Yes | 73c | 139.53$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3932…50f3backed No | 33c | 110.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…4854backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 67c | 96.91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…797fbacked Yes | 65c | 91.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7b…2e8abacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb3…c6b1backed Yes | 62c | 64.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d45…7cdbbacked No | 34c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8a…ebd9backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c06…6630backed Yes | 77c | 40.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…0b96backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…5be6backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Yes | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735c…68c7backed Yes | 65c | 23.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…d1c4backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 64c | 19.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -9.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Croatia beat Scotland?this page
- Will Scotland beat Croatia?No won
- Will the match between Croatia and Scotland end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.