Tennis · resolved market
Santa Cruz: Mariano Kestelboim vs Matias Soto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x460a8906a35fd2310c2eebd2436dd0c995363df89f5edceb7591f7db91ecfbb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matias Sotoof Mariano Kestelboim, Matias Soto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Mariano Kestelboim | 20c | 2,300$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Mariano Kestelboim | 20c | 2,239$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.6 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…7162backed Matias Soto | 79c | 2,094$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Mariano Kestelboim | 23c | 1,588$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.45 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Matias Soto | 77c | 986.2$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.83 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Mariano Kestelboim | 20c | 984.65$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Mariano Kestelboim | 23c | 825.64$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.59 | 372 | 35.2%131 W · 241 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Matias Soto | 78c | 619.44$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…c965backed Matias Soto | 79c | 572.79$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.29 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mariano Kestelboim | 10c | 561.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Mariano Kestelboim | 10c | 461.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Mariano Kestelboim | 12c | 411.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 445 | 27.2%121 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mariano Kestelboim | 7c | 304.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Mariano Kestelboim | 7c | 302.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 292 | 41.8%122 W · 170 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Mariano Kestelboim | 21c | 234$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Mariano Kestelboim | 9c | 207.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 514 | 45.5%234 W · 280 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Mariano Kestelboim | 14c | 204.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Mariano Kestelboim | 13c | 192.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…3983backed Mariano Kestelboim | 19c | 167.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Matias Soto | 78c | 157.89$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 485 | 52.8%256 W · 229 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Mariano Kestelboim | 11c | 150.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…a351backed Matias Soto | 79c | 143.74$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 352 | 68.2%240 W · 112 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Mariano Kestelboim | 22c | 141.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 395 | 34.4%136 W · 259 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcf…0832backed Matias Soto | 78c | 139.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…85bebacked Matias Soto | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mariano Kestelboim | 11c | 114.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mariano Kestelboim | 13c | 105.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Mariano Kestelboim | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Mariano Kestelboim | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 491 | 42.8%210 W · 281 L | -15.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Mariano Kestelboim | 14c | 91.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079d…9a41backed Mariano Kestelboim | 12c | 83.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -7.4wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…3994backed Matias Soto | 77c | 68.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Matias Soto | 80c | 62.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mariano Kestelboim | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Matias Soto | 79c | 43.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 104 | 71.2%74 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a2…7a1fbacked Matias Soto | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 184 | 78.8%145 W · 39 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…3f92backed Matias Soto | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 224 | 82.6%185 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 80cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Matias Soto | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santa Cruz: Mariano Kestelboim vs Matias Sotothis page
- Kestelboim vs. Soto: Match O/U 23.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.