Mls · resolved market
MLS: Will Vancouver beat Houston?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4614c0fe733d328cbeaebd72b7df18e3d7d285cb0bb11959e3c79a313e4109cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Yes | 60c | 6,713$4,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,032.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 35c | 3,343$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.2 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked No | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 39c | 659.11$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.05 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 71c | 528$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.99 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 41c | 436$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.72 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 79c | 379.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…d90cbacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 59c | 155$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…c5f2backed No | 45c | 100.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed No | 41c | 100.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 78c | 51.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 23cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 40c | 41.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 41c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MLS: Will Vancouver beat Houston?this page
- MLS: Will Houston beat Vancouver?No won
- MLS: Will Vancouver vs. Houston end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.