Us Politics · resolved market
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x461e3a6415a701a260c9f61ba726074e44c65c20d3e1f2ca916aaa10747ab319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 1,398$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 18c | 1,196$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.75 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 20c | 855$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.75 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 818.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 732.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 9c | 603.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 555.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…b431backed Yes | 9c | 484.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…0f90backed Yes | 8c | 483.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb175…236cbacked Yes | 17c | 440$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…038ebacked No | 77c | 297.23$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…e8ffbacked Yes | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe185…7818backed Yes | 11c | 123.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 15c | 67.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…7d36backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.