Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs LiXO eSports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x462796f52304c6416d00ec5f34c6c009ff4ceda61915c83843bf4cd115975b70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, LiXO eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,011 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked LiXO eSports | 22c | 810.33$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.71 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…69cbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 600$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c0…c3b9backed LiXO eSports | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…f53cbacked LiXO eSports | 34c | 470$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…f294backed Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 470$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…8cf6backed LiXO eSports | 34c | 399.16$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…7d99backed Nemiga Gaming | 69c | 307.79$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 146.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked LiXO eSports | 26c | 127.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…2359backed Nemiga Gaming | 74c | 127.03$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…247cbacked LiXO eSports | 33c | 105.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 64c | 93.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 80.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed LiXO eSports | 37c | 55.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed LiXO eSports | 36c | 50.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked LiXO eSports | 37c | 50.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 49.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…3411backed Nemiga Gaming | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…91ecbacked Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs LiXO eSports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs LiXO eSports (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs LiXO eSports - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.