Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UC Davis Aggies vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos: O/U 148.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x464147569ff557f6f7ec18efc4eeaf8dcced8de3c3c685ad613a5bbc784867dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $426,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $427,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 57c | 409,180$233,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233,171.67 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 43c | 400,000$172,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228,000 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 10,582$4,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,723.63 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…6894backed Under | 53c | 8,519$4,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,476.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 4,441$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,344.98 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 51c | 1,788$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.27 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 50c | 1,003$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.44 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 46c | 868.05$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.75 | 222 | 50.9%113 W · 109 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Over | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 43c | 491.88$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.37 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Over | 46c | 369.67$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 45c | 297.37$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.55 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Over | 48c | 220$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Over | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed Over | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 54c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 54c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 323 | 43%139 W · 184 L | -18.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…7f09backed Over | 45c | 60.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Over | 46c | 54.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 46cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 56c | 35.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Over | 44c | 35.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 51c | 27.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UC Davis Aggies vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos: O/U 148.5this page
- UC Davis Aggies vs. UC Santa Barbara GauchosUC Davis Aggies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.