NHL · resolved market
NHL Playoffs 1st Round: 3 first round upsets?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4656e5bd1df2ee47a219e15024e9ae06c5062399ba5f6a3c665cb0da5ceed96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce21…d5f5backed Yes | 53c | 28,867$15,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,299.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…5739backed No | 47c | 28,867$13,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,299.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 29c | 542$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked No | 69c | 406.97$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.62 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 377.88$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.94 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 56c | 222$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 265 | 47.5%126 W · 139 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 56c | 197.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 101.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 49c | 84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fda…bc2dbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 60c | 45.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NHL Playoffs 1st Round: 3 first round upsets?this page
- NHL Playoffs 1st Round: 4 first round upsets?No won
- NHL Playoffs 1st Round: 5 first round upsets?No won
- NHL Playoffs 1st Round: 6 or more first round upsets?No won
- NHL Playoffs 1st Round: Less than 3 upsets?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.