NHL · resolved market
NHL Playoffs 1st Round: Less than 3 upsets?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x461962abec8af525cb576a68cf536d15ba4f38206ca76fa0d168ec62dec27052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $220,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x751e…3b9dbacked Yes | 46c | 40,657$18,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,954.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de0…9869backed No | 54c | 40,657$21,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,954.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bd…9081backed Yes | 48c | 36,211$17,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,829.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc61…805dbacked No | 52c | 36,211$18,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,829.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a56…0a04backed Yes | 46c | 28,269$13,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,265.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…3a90backed No | 54c | 28,269$15,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,265.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 33c | 1,400$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 67c | 800$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 70c | 550$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.5 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -11.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 30c | 542$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.07 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 70c | 275$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 69c | 225$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 52c | 199$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 31c | 189.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.28 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 46c | 140.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 60c | 134.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…8441backed No | 78c | 134$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb2…8e12backed Yes | 46c | 99.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 35c | 83.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 40c | 79.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…96f1backed Yes | 46c | 75.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Yes | 58c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9500…85eabacked No | 57c | 62.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16b…2c39backed No | 58c | 54.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8921…1707backed No | 57c | 52.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fda…bc2dbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 35c | 42.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 71c | 24.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NHL Playoffs 1st Round: Less than 3 upsets?this page
- NHL Playoffs 1st Round: 3 first round upsets?No won
- NHL Playoffs 1st Round: 4 first round upsets?No won
- NHL Playoffs 1st Round: 5 first round upsets?No won
- NHL Playoffs 1st Round: 6 or more first round upsets?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.