MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46d52140665c32c59054fccbdc3680cb4a1a9a307de8829c88a83c2fda504d20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 10,332$4,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,849.63 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers | 50c | 8,238$4,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,104.07 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 8,197$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,196.72 | 241 | 46.1%111 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 3,250$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.58 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 1,404$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.6 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 1,394$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.14 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 949.55$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.32 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 796.34$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.15 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 424.31$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.35 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 391.18$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Seattle Mariners | 10c | 336.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 300.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.13 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 186.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 194 | 35.6%69 W · 125 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 171.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 135.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 128.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 128$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 103$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 103$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 48%121 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 219 | 56.6%124 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9af…f4f7backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 56.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Detroit Tigers | 72c | 53.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 45.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 44.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 74c | 37.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…36fabacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 25.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Detroit Tigers | 50c | 23.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 20.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Detroit Tigers | 69c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.