MLB · resolved market
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best regular season record in the MLB?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x472b8428505630f505ccd13648e91d496a00d1f567a84b6e7cfb3071f7af6eef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 66c | 2,332$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c3…5350backed Yes | 39c | 229.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 64c | 209$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 205$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 65c | 89.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 67c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ab…cdcbbacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcefb…7ba3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best regular season record in the MLB?this page
- Will the Detroit Tigers have the best regular season record in the MLB?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.