Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Slovenj Gradec Men: Luca Castagnola vs Stefan Popovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x472e18cfce1d692a6505d83b79944d66f9c80fe8caa822c23d43f41a8a946763
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luca Castagnolaof Luca Castagnola, Stefan Popovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Luca Castagnola | 29c | 167.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Stefan Popovic | 57c | 121.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe75…5af2backed Luca Castagnola | 56c | 109.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Luca Castagnola | 44c | 92.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…cb91backed Stefan Popovic | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Stefan Popovic | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32e…b577backed Luca Castagnola | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 397 | 59.4%236 W · 161 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe366…6de2backed Luca Castagnola | 45c | 47.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Luca Castagnola | 44c | 47.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 226 | 51.8%117 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Stefan Popovic | 63c | 43.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…6415backed Stefan Popovic | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Stefan Popovic | 57c | 30.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…fd9dbacked Stefan Popovic | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…9980backed Stefan Popovic | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 221 | 43.9%97 W · 124 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Luca Castagnola | 48c | 29.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 301 | 47.5%143 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…e73fbacked Stefan Popovic | 61c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Stefan Popovic | 44c | 24.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Stefan Popovic | 57c | 23.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Stefan Popovic | 62c | 22.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.