NHL · resolved market
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Barys Astana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47571344a2320035a6b70fbe20a4d794c84433a4706d56c36bbbbdda03d33a82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sibir Novosibirskof Sibir Novosibirsk, Barys Astana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,802 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 64c | 1,104$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.13 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Barys Astana | 37c | 563.01$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.91 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e7…7bd5backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 63c | 468.25$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Barys Astana | 27c | 417.23$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Barys Astana | 36c | 332.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 78c | 316.25$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Barys Astana | 55c | 263.32$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.43 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Barys Astana | 43c | 238.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 181 | 32%58 W · 123 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Barys Astana | 36c | 113.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 50c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 79c | 78.36$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Barys Astana | 56c | 78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Barys Astana | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Barys Astana | 33c | 62.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Barys Astana | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Barys Astana | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Barys Astana | 35c | 47.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab98…5854backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 70c | 43.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 451 | 49.4%223 W · 228 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…d3c9backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 58c | 35.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Barys Astana | 52c | 35.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Barys Astana | 37c | 33.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…6570backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Barys Astana | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Barys Astana | 38c | 31.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f71…9a06backed Barys Astana | 66c | 30.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Barys Astana | 53c | 25.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5da…f6e5backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.