Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x476c943cbe66776b5d6319c64ebe0c653dfeb7e0857b655efbf7e8fee3aef952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 40c | 323.66$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 319.25$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 251.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 61c | 199.91$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 55c | 184.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 180.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 173.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 7c | 143.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 129.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 41c | 122.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 121.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 47c | 105.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 45c | 103.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 40c | 101.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 42c | 99.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 56c | 88.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…cf5bbacked Yes | 26c | 85.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 79.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 79.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 79c | 74.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 67.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 61.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 61c | 60.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 59.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 59c | 54.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 30c | 52.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 39c | 51.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 51.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 47.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 45c | 46.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 42.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 61c | 39.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 36.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 42c | 35.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 55c | 34.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 33.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…3405backed Yes | 41c | 31.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 41c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 65c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 27.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 66c | 25.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 61c | 24.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 23.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 23.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 64c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 57c | 17.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.