Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa87151ff3dcde2b77e92e7842ecedddd47851694afe790c66503dbd73c4610f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 68c | 365.39$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 48c | 302.44$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.81 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 41c | 203.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.11 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 41c | 203.52$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.93 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 167.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 159$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 130.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 119.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 117.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 54c | 115.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 22c | 114.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 113.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 47c | 100.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 49c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 24c | 90.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 40c | 67.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 64.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 68c | 64.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 60.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 60.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 50c | 56.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 54.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 50.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 79c | 46.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 42.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 71c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 31c | 38.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 58c | 35.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 79c | 31.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 41c | 29.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 59c | 29.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 29.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 55c | 28.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 27.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…ade6backed Yes | 72c | 27.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 26.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 25.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…4856backed Yes | 58c | 25.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 57c | 23.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 78c | 22.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 16.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.