Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-2.5) vs Aguilar (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47809249963818bf2f4bf6e22511902017298f66cfa55c3a2efe7099089e9764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aguilarof Medvedev, Aguilar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Medvedev | 72c | 1,368$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.74 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Aguilar | 28c | 1,250$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Aguilar | 32c | 822.51$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.95 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Aguilar | 34c | 617.65$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.65 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Aguilar | 29c | 600$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.34 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…0b7bbacked Medvedev | 71c | 422.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Medvedev | 67c | 366.57$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.6 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Aguilar | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Medvedev | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Medvedev | 70c | 210$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Medvedev | 67c | 207.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Medvedev | 52c | 171.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Medvedev | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Aguilar | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Aguilar | 40c | 85.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…4622backed Medvedev | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…ad3abacked Aguilar | 33c | 75.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Medvedev | 62c | 65.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Aguilar | 47c | 62.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Aguilar | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Aguilar | 34c | 41.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Medvedev | 72c | 40.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Aguilar | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-2.5) vs Aguilar (+2.5)this page
- Set 1 Winner: Aguilar vs MedvedevAguilar won
- Set 2 Winner: Aguilar vs MedvedevMedvedev won
- Set 3 Winner: Aguilar vs MedvedevMedvedev won
- Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.