Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Dayton Flyers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47d5a71350c99b990309d2442b820e91eeb74176f6a8f5f3b08367b7ada3e865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VCU Ramsof Dayton Flyers, VCU Rams
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,444 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Dayton Flyers | 52c | 19,234$9,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,998.84 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed VCU Rams | 48c | 9,285$4,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,828.41 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked VCU Rams | 48c | 4,956$2,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577.29 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed VCU Rams | 48c | 4,064$1,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,113.37 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed VCU Rams | 49c | 647.79$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.42 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed VCU Rams | 53c | 188.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Dayton Flyers | 47c | 133.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed VCU Rams | 52c | 112.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed VCU Rams | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Dayton Flyers | 52c | 95.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Dayton Flyers | 46c | 88.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed VCU Rams | 48c | 81.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 72.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 68.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Dayton Flyers | 48c | 67.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed VCU Rams | 47c | 59.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453f…6b3bbacked VCU Rams | 50c | 58.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Dayton Flyers | 43c | 47.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 195 | 22.1%43 W · 152 L | -36.3wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dayton Flyers | 53c | 39.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed VCU Rams | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked VCU Rams | 48c | 31.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed VCU Rams | 49c | 22.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…8f8cbacked Dayton Flyers | 51c | 21.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked VCU Rams | 49c | 20.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-1.5)this page
- VCU Rams vs. Dayton FlyersVCU Rams won
- VCU Rams vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 146.5Under won
- VCU Rams vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 147.5Under won
- VCU Rams vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 148.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.