South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ea2b623bf76485d5715d3efd004c8a792a869843de91a59e98c7741620cf17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 50c | 8,359$4,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,180.06 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 39c | 1,797$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.52 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 25c | 1,608$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 46c | 668.69$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.18 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 66c | 601.81$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 567.9$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.28 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 248.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.76 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 205$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.55 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 67c | 185.53$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 73c | 131$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…5fd2backed Under | 80c | 125.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 31c | 107$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…9b6cbacked Over | 69c | 86.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 17c | 77.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 23c | 74.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 73.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Over | 69c | 67.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 53c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…ae20backed Over | 76c | 54.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 51c | 40.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…7c24backed Over | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…143fbacked Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 64c | 24.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Over | 50c | 22.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x73e9…cde3backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5)CA Paranaense won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.