Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47eb09c3aa0ae684f629ebc446324d0bc2eac695d23044be6f2a2efab8aabef7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 22c | 5,627$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.87 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 2,595$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.75 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…27f3backed Yes | 16c | 1,058$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 29c | 979.37$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.49 | 518 | 42.1%218 W · 300 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 69c | 563.17$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.17 | 191 | 65.4%125 W · 66 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 563$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…f515backed Yes | 17c | 466.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 59c | 423$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.43 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…32b2backed Yes | 21c | 375$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 11c | 298$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…7198backed Yes | 10c | 290$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked No | 65c | 230.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 77 | 79.2%61 W · 16 L | +18.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 19c | 211.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed Yes | 19c | 198.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 11c | 186.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…994abacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…f14dbacked Yes | 13c | 136.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 37c | 122$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 39c | 77.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed No | 65c | 76.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed4…8f43backed Yes | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 68c | 43.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 80c | 40.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed No | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 32.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 65c | 28.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd6…6939backed No | 63c | 23.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…be0abacked No | 75c | 23.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed No | 68c | 20.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will SC Braga vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.