Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x480d9b6a7c83b133864baa37cfeb2a61a782ae155b2657dde244610ce24f8137
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,456 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 17c | 398.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.88 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 213$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 76c | 190.18$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 183.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 182.95$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 22c | 166.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 164.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb26b…cbeabacked Yes | 21c | 162.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +164.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 9c | 157.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 18c | 153.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.27 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 145.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 13c | 139.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 78c | 127.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 14c | 123.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 119.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 11c | 112.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Yes | 32c | 110.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…5a85backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 97.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 34c | 96.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 93.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 88.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 23c | 81.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…96ebbacked Yes | 23c | 79.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 62c | 78.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…1ad1backed Yes | 16c | 69.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +162.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 59c | 67.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 64.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 37c | 56.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 35c | 46.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 38c | 37.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 32.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…1423backed Yes | 63c | 23.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked No | 79c | 18.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 14°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.