Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Valinor - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x480e5a2e2fd0ea69d9276540e456cfd271971b21db2133d6f8b5e5bb53b73e66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valinorof Yellow Submarine, Valinor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Valinor | 41c | 1,422$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.15 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Yellow Submarine | 59c | 1,358$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.32 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Yellow Submarine | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Yellow Submarine | 59c | 437.16$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.05 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valinor | 41c | 387.28$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.45 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Yellow Submarine | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Valinor | 50c | 136.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 134.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Valinor | 27c | 134.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Yellow Submarine | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yellow Submarine | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Valinor | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Yellow Submarine | 60c | 49.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yellow Submarine | 61c | 44.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked Valinor | 53c | 37.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Valinor | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Valinor | 35c | 29.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Valinor | 41c | 27.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Valinor - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Valinor (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Valinor - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.