Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Valinor (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc76ce6b9cc2fd5b4a06f28c836b5c664b5d8ebf90003ad8e373c05b0106fe210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Valinor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Yellow Submarine | 60c | 5,019$3,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,988.62 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…7034backed Valinor | 40c | 4,988$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Valinor | 41c | 2,518$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.39 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Yellow Submarine | 59c | 1,321$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.54 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Valinor | 30c | 1,202$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.83 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Valinor | 36c | 1,089$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.77 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Valinor | 4c | 1,070$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Yellow Submarine | 48c | 1,062$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.65 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…415abacked Valinor | 3c | 1,024$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5756…9362backed Valinor | 26c | 1,010$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…f46bbacked Yellow Submarine | 74c | 1,010$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…e99cbacked Yellow Submarine | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda52…cc00backed Valinor | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yellow Submarine | 60c | 749.6$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.84 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valinor | 40c | 513.81$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.62 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Valinor | 26c | 491.08$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yellow Submarine | 73c | 428.59$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…c7aebacked Yellow Submarine | 78c | 427.49$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Valinor | 27c | 350.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Valinor | 25c | 299.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Valinor | 31c | 280.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Yellow Submarine | 40c | 279.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 266.23$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 257.37$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.68 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 245$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 199.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 184.07$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Valinor | 51c | 177.07$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Valinor | 29c | 174.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Yellow Submarine | 50c | 169.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Valinor | 17c | 144.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 142.23$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…272ebacked Valinor | 60c | 130.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yellow Submarine | 39c | 129.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4b…c2bcbacked Valinor | 11c | 125.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Valinor | 29c | 121$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yellow Submarine | 72c | 107.53$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 100.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…2922backed Valinor | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6051…ac55backed Yellow Submarine | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Valinor | 35c | 84.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Valinor | 30c | 80.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…3487backed Valinor | 72c | 80.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…6a3ebacked Yellow Submarine | 69c | 75.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yellow Submarine | 46c | 72.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…6373backed Valinor | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Valinor | 31c | 64.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…347bbacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 54.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd148…1327backed Yellow Submarine | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yellow Submarine | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…d35fbacked Yellow Submarine | 71c | 49.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91d…7600backed Valinor | 28c | 45.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d0…2bc5backed Valinor | 29c | 39.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…756bbacked Valinor | 28c | 36.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4694…7527backed Valinor | 38c | 34.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.6wins | -0.42per pick | 69cpaid | -65%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…b1aebacked Valinor | 35c | 33.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…dac9backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…145fbacked Yellow Submarine | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…29d8backed Valinor | 40c | 30.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Valinor | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2a…baf3backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 26.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…a8b5backed Yellow Submarine | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…2f22backed Yellow Submarine | 78c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Valinor (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Valinor - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Valinor - Game 2 WinnerValinor won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.