TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Jorrit Bergsma (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,779
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,779 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe394…289cbacked Yes16c1,423$228 inWon+$1,195.522250%11 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x359f…fa80backed No2c1,400$34 inLost-$34427.1%3 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes10c628.57$62 inWon+$566.36923.2%16 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa7f…8a58backed Yes45c299.99$134 inWon+$165.991631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e4…8206backed Yes15c266.67$40 inWon+$226.67850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+103%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No71c173.25$123 inLost-$122.788237.8%31 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf88…fcb0backed Yes20c153.18$31 inWon+$122.541833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes15c135.4$20 inWon+$115.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed Yes49c94.39$46 inWon+$48.26742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid-21.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No80c87.18$70 inLost-$69.7411858.5%69 W · 49 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4bc…a87fbacked No80c20$16 inLost-$162050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.