TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,776
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,661

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,776 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94bc…8ce0backed No61c3,377$2,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.092040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No57c3,284$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.921478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.24per pick55cpaid+55.6%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes42c3,182$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.984641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Yes44c2,183$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes45c2,061$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.488237.8%31 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No59c1,754$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.191553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Yes45c1,499$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.71573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8568…bc38backed Yes48c1,485$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed No49c1,174$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.942343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes38c905.85$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.86923.2%16 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa900…3805backed No62c860.76$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.761631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed No55c819.66$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.882259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+42.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes44c799.73$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.74228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No56c525.72$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.163625%9 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No58c413.77$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.175151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae3…4dd4backed Yes49c400.96$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.51735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes40c366.54$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.362540%10 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…1d80backed Yes41c328.06$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No46c255.59$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.026942%29 W · 40 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+42.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x61a9…d092backed No62c247.16$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.531520%3 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked Yes44c225$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Yes46c213.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.552123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-60.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No57c185.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.778535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No53c182.2$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.755242.3%22 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No48c181.08$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7311858.5%69 W · 49 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No60c178$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No56c171.58$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.246137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes55c145$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.552948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked Yes43c135$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.11145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No58c134.29$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.112846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes44c114.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes44c114.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9f1…137cbacked Yes45c111.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9837…8bf8backed Yes63c99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes45c97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.391643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes37c84.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.844235.7%15 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a05…e4b8backed No58c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e5…f82ebacked No46c64.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf94b…94a7backed No51c64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.362744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…b0c1backed No55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked Yes45c53.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x154e…911fbacked No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c2…e7c7backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d7…538abacked Yes54c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc401…63b1backed Yes44c44.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No57c41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.623737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes67c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.452860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+17.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x30cf…16e7backed No57c34.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.91580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+68.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4644…a2b6backed No62c34.52$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.181952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes63c34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.422725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-62.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a77…b230backed Yes45c33.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No56c27.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.822445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x954e…f704backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8116…b2a8backed No67c22.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.39650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bc…a87fbacked No55c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.822050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes47c21.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-43.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd6…a5e2backed No57c19.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a27…2fdcbacked No62c17.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40c…53f6backed No61c16.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.