CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: LAVK (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4837d3457a46d937f4aa2aaf18973475d59fd358160488dbd063f96d6591c9a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- megoshortof Lavked, megoshort
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked megoshort | 69c | 2,020$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.27 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lavked | 32c | 1,134$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.61 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Lavked | 32c | 529.23$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.35 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Lavked | 32c | 360$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 393 | 38.2%150 W · 243 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed megoshort | 62c | 215$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Lavked | 31c | 161$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | -13.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Lavked | 37c | 125.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed Lavked | 30c | 121.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Lavked | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed megoshort | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed megoshort | 69c | 69.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 465 | 55.1%256 W · 209 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b4…6815backed megoshort | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed megoshort | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: LAVK (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs megoshort (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffsmegoshort won
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs megoshort - Map 1 Winnermegoshort won
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs megoshort - Map 2 Winnermegoshort won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.