CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs megoshort - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08dad7dfe56be4ab18255ce09a6044f96bf408e6d6432d69174658b682f4a46b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- megoshortof Lavked, megoshort
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Lavked | 60c | 6,907$4,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,133.6 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0478…37c3backed megoshort | 26c | 2,232$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.61 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d15…a2d0backed megoshort | 37c | 2,060$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.31 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +6.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4419…fcf4backed megoshort | 36c | 1,024$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.25 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed megoshort | 74c | 958.97$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.61 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…570ebacked Lavked | 20c | 927.79$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.11 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed megoshort | 34c | 878.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.17 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked megoshort | 64c | 819.65$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.92 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed megoshort | 68c | 611.13$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.04 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Lavked | 31c | 610.21$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.35 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked megoshort | 52c | 591.54$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.2 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked megoshort | 56c | 524.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.93 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0f59backed megoshort | 28c | 505.57$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.6 | 218 | 45.9%100 W · 118 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792c…d2ecbacked megoshort | 26c | 500$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.5 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lavked | 41c | 467.15$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…df49backed Lavked | 52c | 443.46$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.6 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…b542backed Lavked | 59c | 442.18$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…e320backed Lavked | 65c | 403.23$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…2c72backed Lavked | 49c | 398.65$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…e928backed megoshort | 26c | 389.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.11 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54bc…b4e9backed megoshort | 54c | 373.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.02 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Lavked | 26c | 352$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Lavked | 21c | 338.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…d92fbacked megoshort | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.7 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…03a9backed Lavked | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked megoshort | 53c | 299$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.56 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed megoshort | 36c | 275.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Lavked | 26c | 248.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Lavked | 38c | 210.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…3952backed megoshort | 79c | 206.22$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 141 | 39.7%56 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f25…d5debacked megoshort | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed megoshort | 73c | 179.04$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed megoshort | 50c | 150.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…4332backed megoshort | 61c | 145.64$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | -17.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Lavked | 27c | 131.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 393 | 38.2%150 W · 243 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Lavked | 64c | 129.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed megoshort | 33c | 110.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked megoshort | 33c | 108.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Lavked | 30c | 102.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked megoshort | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Lavked | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…4e6abacked megoshort | 49c | 96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 265 | 54.3%144 W · 121 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…d9e2backed megoshort | 36c | 95.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked megoshort | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Lavked | 21c | 80.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed megoshort | 36c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Lavked | 32c | 62.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lavked | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed megoshort | 48c | 57.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…6de0backed Lavked | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Lavked | 31c | 53.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked megoshort | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Lavked | 53c | 49.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed Lavked | 46c | 44.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Lavked | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…0717backed megoshort | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 295 | 43.1%127 W · 168 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Lavked | 31c | 35.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed Lavked | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c3…97c1backed megoshort | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8f…b302backed Lavked | 52c | 28.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked megoshort | 61c | 26.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…a8d8backed Lavked | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 406 | 66.3%269 W · 137 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…588dbacked Lavked | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -6.1wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Lavked | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 170 | 52.4%89 W · 81 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked megoshort | 70c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked Lavked | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 664 | 46.4%308 W · 356 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs megoshort - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs megoshort (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffsmegoshort won
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs megoshort - Map 2 Winnermegoshort won
- Map Handicap: LAVK (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5)megoshort won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.