Champions League · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders beat PSG?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4851abfc08af8fcbc46bc82b459f09b6293f92fc276bf7afa5d15d74b95cc76a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 4c | 22,302$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.17 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 4c | 18,945$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.61 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 7c | 5,050$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.54 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 2c | 4,007$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 4c | 3,402$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 5c | 1,983$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 2c | 1,314$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,085$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 4c | 666.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders beat PSG?this page
- Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders?Yes won
- Will PSG vs. Seattle Sounders end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.