Champions League · resolved market
Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf027bfe9afd9802e136d43ccfb545780d2aaf481f6f023e3d01680d9f2533cca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $218,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed No | 13c | 70,432$9,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,338.93 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 13c | 21,478$2,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,792.08 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 13c | 15,052$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.22 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 13c | 15,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 14c | 9,843$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.69 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 14c | 4,870$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.78 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 13c | 4,145$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.91 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 14c | 3,950$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked No | 11c | 3,426$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 18c | 3,050$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 14c | 2,725$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.41 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 12c | 2,700$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 12c | 1,767$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.71 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 4c | 1,690$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 15c | 1,534$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.15 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 11c | 1,387$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked No | 14c | 1,382$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.48 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 15c | 1,154$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.21 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 14c | 933.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.09 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked No | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 13c | 699.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 15c | 435.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 15c | 399.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 15c | 286.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7145…89e6backed No | 20c | 252.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 12c | 248.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 160 | 36.9%59 W · 101 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked No | 16c | 205.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 15c | 166$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…6157backed Yes | 80c | 138.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 10c | 127.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 14c | 99.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked No | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders?this page
- Will PSG vs. Seattle Sounders end in a draw?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders beat PSG?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.