Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x488fa71ca6979b39c68cc8d5013252ec4479b358d39b43d651c890f03e09fd61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 6,640$3,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,594.58 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed No | 50c | 5,114$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.71 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 63c | 1,584$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 383.98$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.79 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 73c | 340$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 67c | 253.21$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 37c | 235.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.02 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 29c | 161.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked No | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 72c | 127$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 44c | 110.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 48c | 58.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed No | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 16.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 137 | 70.8%97 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Groningen win on 2026-01-10?No won
- Will NAC Breda win on 2026-01-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.