Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will the match between Manchester United and Rangers end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48b46c9dbf750ef9782d8f79c0335bd135ad53ff9a529e841dd892b63cbfd68e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…8e1ebacked Yes | 22c | 458.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 28c | 361.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 62c | 353.62$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.34 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 78c | 297.43$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…9a93backed Yes | 22c | 291.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 79c | 217.43$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 78c | 158.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…fd63backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 78c | 73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb4…7441backed Yes | 50c | 26.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c07…0157backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…e87fbacked No | 78c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…8ffdbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…3c34backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…e7d1backed Yes | 76c | 14.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762c…b825backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Manchester United and Rangers end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester United beat Rangers?Yes won
- Will Rangers beat Manchester United?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.