MLB · resolved market
ALDS: Guardians vs. Tigers Game 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48d796d07b43e36d86e62d522766dc491128dcffb7c51ae727a8f692a6f26ad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tigersof Guardians, Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Guardians | 48c | 2,000$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Tigers | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Guardians | 44c | 1,365$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.65 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Tigers | 52c | 1,289$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.78 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Guardians | 49c | 1,001$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.09 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e748backed Tigers | 53c | 999.98$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Tigers | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Tigers | 51c | 465.53$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.03 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…822abacked Guardians | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2edf…fb82backed Guardians | 47c | 414.95$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Guardians | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ad…cc06backed Guardians | 48c | 314.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Tigers | 53c | 312.77$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5796…ca7bbacked Guardians | 64c | 258.18$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9296…7a05backed Guardians | 51c | 252.73$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…a972backed Tigers | 54c | 227.77$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Guardians | 45c | 212.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…0ab3backed Guardians | 48c | 209.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tigers | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Guardians | 44c | 199.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…a31dbacked Tigers | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84be…ec7abacked Guardians | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Guardians | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07a…356dbacked Guardians | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…6b56backed Guardians | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…a747backed Guardians | 46c | 108.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Tigers | 54c | 99.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Tigers | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Tigers | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Tigers | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…b69bbacked Guardians | 51c | 47.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Tigers | 43c | 45.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Guardians | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Tigers | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Guardians | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Tigers | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Tigers | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…67ebbacked Guardians | 52c | 24.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.