Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48e3658da3c966cafa91e06fc16c943fecf7c7e66e4572aded3e0eeba8f84ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,473$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 27c | 1,087$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.57 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bd…57adbacked No | 70c | 513.61$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 354.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4faf…5812backed Yes | 7c | 273.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 6c | 220.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c41…1268backed Yes | 13c | 148.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 11c | 117.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 29c | 101.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 13c | 80.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 78c | 69.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 68.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 44.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 76c | 42.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 27.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.