Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefffb8a4f6a9ab1b74982e038079503d2261509218c677f3c32a32a463c75e60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 43c | 676.43$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.45 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 602.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 461.85$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 350.97$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 30c | 316.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 14c | 300.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.96 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 13c | 220$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.84 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 12c | 211.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.85 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked No | 6c | 186.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 185.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.87 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 175.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 157.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 20c | 154.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eca…24edbacked Yes | 15c | 151.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +581.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4faf…5812backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 80c | 128.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 100.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 10c | 100.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.56 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 89.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 12c | 85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 83.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 12c | 81.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 72c | 63.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 60.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…420abacked Yes | 28c | 60.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…9ab2backed Yes | 51c | 58.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 36c | 54.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 51.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 39c | 45.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 28c | 42.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 62c | 26.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 80c | 24.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 77c | 23.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.