Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53b6013aef15cd9777ee4cc3a5cf3201d36a6ddecd3f944756f29ce9f5af169e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 15c | 705.1$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 38c | 209.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 180.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 63c | 159.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 34c | 153.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 150.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 147.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 147$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 12c | 135.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 39c | 130.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 130.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 120.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 109$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 109$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 34c | 104$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 36c | 99.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 99.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 97.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 56c | 96.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 91.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 86.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 85.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 36c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 74.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…8d3dbacked Yes | 68c | 73.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 69c | 72.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 72.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…fd7ebacked Yes | 41c | 69.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 50c | 62.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 60.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 33c | 60.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed Yes | 54c | 55.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 64c | 42.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed Yes | 65c | 39.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 54c | 38.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…8003backed Yes | 68c | 38.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 36.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…5610backed Yes | 56c | 35.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 44c | 33.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 36c | 32.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes | 63c | 32.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 64c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…b432backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 45c | 27.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 47c | 24.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed No | 77c | 22.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 60c | 20.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 56c | 19.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 77c | 14.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.