Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x491976cf7635f3e385406456521c8b7e6dbfa16469b038dc2452b17a1d0434af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 292.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 71c | 269.58$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 126.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 122.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 32c | 121$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 116.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 32c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 80.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 68c | 75.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 72.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 71.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 62.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 73c | 62.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 61.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…6fabbacked Yes | 37c | 60.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 55.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Yes | 40c | 50.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 47.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 44.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 44.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 41.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 37.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 72c | 26.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 67c | 24.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 24.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 14.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 90°F or higher on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.