Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7247546d3023f369d87f23e2d6861ca36c544d660c756e5775d3071a95d7b08a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 76c | 1,046$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.15 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 3c | 405.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 301.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 216.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 6c | 188$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 16c | 186.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 182.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 179.77$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 29c | 131.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 125.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 121.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 35c | 115.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 109.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 24c | 105.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 90.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 55c | 90.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 73c | 81.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 80.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 48c | 73.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 67.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 67.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c0a7backed No | 71c | 63.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 31c | 61.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 71c | 60.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 59.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 31c | 57.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 26c | 57.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 54.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 50.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 48.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 48.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…0261backed Yes | 53c | 47.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 45.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 49c | 43.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 35c | 41.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 49c | 36.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 35.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 29.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 28.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 27.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 21.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 68c | 21.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 70c | 20.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 68c | 20.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 70c | 20.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 71c | 19.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 71c | 19.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 18.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 17.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 74c | 15.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 90°F or higher on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.