Tennis · resolved market

Thionville: August Holmgren vs Keegan Smith

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x493b0ba425188d1552c2d0514dbe0151506c3925a4de64e5d505d0ba6d138e4d

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Keegan Smithof August Holmgren, Keegan Smith
Resolved: Mar 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,785 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Keegan Smith	61c	2,697$1,645 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,052.03	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked August Holmgren	38c	1,316$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	134	39.6%53 W · 81 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed August Holmgren	41c	1,144$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.77	243	50.2%122 W · 121 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed August Holmgren	40c	978.86$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.31	1,265	29.2%370 W · 895 L	-13.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Keegan Smith	69c	825.27$567 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.99	6,652	50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L	+263.6wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Keegan Smith	67c	813.34$545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.22	2,865	44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Keegan Smith	63c	687.83$436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.13	8,241	45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L	+166.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked August Holmgren	40c	629.55$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	296	37.5%111 W · 185 L	-15.1wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-15%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed August Holmgren	38c	576.32$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	625	34.4%215 W · 410 L	-20.1wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed August Holmgren	39c	571.83$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.82	1,980	46.2%915 W · 1,065 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Keegan Smith	59c	504.3$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.3	524	60.9%319 W · 205 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed August Holmgren	43c	496.11$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.14	1,123	50.3%565 W · 558 L	-19.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked August Holmgren	36c	413.27$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.23	220	33.6%74 W · 146 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Keegan Smith	61c	327.22$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.22	1,504	35.1%528 W · 976 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc4…b0b5backed August Holmgren	17c	317.65$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed August Holmgren	36c	275.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	186	59.7%111 W · 75 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed August Holmgren	40c	274.02$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	1,266	34.2%433 W · 833 L	-43.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked August Holmgren	16c	218.75$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	179	30.7%55 W · 124 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed August Holmgren	35c	190.5$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.19	1,381	16.4%227 W · 1,154 L	-108.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked August Holmgren	45c	188.64$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.89	1,284	39.2%503 W · 781 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd866…55e0backed August Holmgren	29c	183.65$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.67	384	60.4%232 W · 152 L	+29.2wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed August Holmgren	24c	174.96$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.64	213	46.5%99 W · 114 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Keegan Smith	55c	171.82$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.32	1,768	43.2%764 W · 1,004 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed August Holmgren	40c	166.66$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.66	420	46.9%197 W · 223 L	-8.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Keegan Smith	61c	164.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.33	219	59.4%130 W · 89 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	64cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Keegan Smith	62c	161.29$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.29	1,107	43.5%481 W · 626 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa24d…38b2backed August Holmgren	46c	153.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	96	29.2%28 W · 68 L	-11.4wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Keegan Smith	59c	150$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.5	530	58.1%308 W · 222 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f41…5c9fbacked August Holmgren	41c	150$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.5	158	48.7%77 W · 81 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed August Holmgren	27c	129.66$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.84	6,840	48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L	+58.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Keegan Smith	75c	120$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	2,426	47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked August Holmgren	44c	115.71$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.51	2,058	59.5%1,225 W · 833 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked August Holmgren	40c	114$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.68	544	34.2%186 W · 358 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed August Holmgren	31c	110.48$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.25	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Keegan Smith	62c	100.43$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.76	2,150	54.1%1,164 W · 986 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Keegan Smith	59c	100$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.1	779	67.8%528 W · 251 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	69cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe784…e664backed Keegan Smith	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-36%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked August Holmgren	29c	92.11$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.73	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Keegan Smith	61c	88.89$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.01	279	35.8%100 W · 179 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed August Holmgren	27c	87.25$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.96	3,270	13.8%450 W · 2,820 L	-549.1wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0xe81b…ae69backed Keegan Smith	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	59cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Keegan Smith	64c	70.78$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.71	175	52.6%92 W · 83 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x319e…de42backed Keegan Smith	60c	67.18$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.18	165	52.1%86 W · 79 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cfd…0c89backed August Holmgren	41c	60.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Keegan Smith	56c	60.6$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.66	326	49.1%160 W · 166 L	-18.4wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89b6…84bebacked Keegan Smith	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Keegan Smith	61c	49.18$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.18	43	74.4%32 W · 11 L	+4.9wins	+0.11per pick	63cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfdf1…a9cebacked Keegan Smith	60c	42$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.01	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	57cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Keegan Smith	60c	42$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	734	53%389 W · 345 L	+36.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Keegan Smith	62c	38.52$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.74	156	50%78 W · 78 L	-11.9wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Keegan Smith	72c	36.11$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.11	580	67.8%393 W · 187 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	67cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed August Holmgren	39c	33.91$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	4,288	40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L	-139.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Keegan Smith	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	903	40.2%363 W · 540 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Keegan Smith	53c	33.62$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.8	813	49.1%399 W · 414 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Keegan Smith	61c	31.15$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.15	884	46.8%414 W · 470 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7789…d6c0backed August Holmgren	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	94	55.3%52 W · 42 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…fe2abacked August Holmgren	39c	28.54$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	76	65.8%50 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	68cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e3…40a0backed Keegan Smith	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	117	59.8%70 W · 47 L	+6.6wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Keegan Smith	66c	18.32$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.27	430	58.6%252 W · 178 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfacd…d470backed Keegan Smith	78c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.3	210	72.4%152 W · 58 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	72cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Thionville: August Holmgren vs Keegan Smith

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market