Europa Conference League · resolved market
Fenerbahçe SK vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x493e20338f019892393d4b601686213facd19c388330181ae5874b856fc49e90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 57c | 49,999$28,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,249.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 34,990$15,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,677.97 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 18,749$8,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,682.96 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 55c | 655.23$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…ef6bbacked Under | 44c | 458.59$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 56c | 321.43$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 39c | 300.87$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.78 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Over | 62c | 250$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 45c | 221.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 54c | 220$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Over | 56c | 179.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…e80bbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Under | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed Under | 45c | 124.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…0e0bbacked Over | 55c | 89.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x924e…3fe8backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 56c | 87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Over | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Under | 41c | 78.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c8…efacbacked Over | 59c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Over | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b4…df08backed Over | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…f2bbbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc71…b999backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…fff3backed Over | 59c | 33.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…ce18backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…db97backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 40c | 27.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Under | 47c | 25.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 47c | 23.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…185cbacked Over | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…b95dbacked Over | 52c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54be…ced9backed Over | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…a309backed Over | 57c | 18.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.