MLB · resolved market
Angels vs. Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49659b428ed9a60c8d53fdab0017f88cbb4e590f5fe39a920bdcfae59788474b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marinersof Angels, Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mariners | 64c | 4,404$2,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.14 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Angels | 34c | 2,718$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Angels | 37c | 2,703$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.65 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Mariners | 66c | 938.54$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.1 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Angels | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Angels | 34c | 452.1$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.62 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mariners | 67c | 400$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Mariners | 67c | 336.95$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.02 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…78f5backed Mariners | 64c | 306$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mariners | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Angels | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Angels | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Mariners | 66c | 193$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Mariners | 63c | 135$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Angels | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…06a2backed Angels | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Mariners | 67c | 126.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mariners | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mariners | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mariners | 66c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mariners | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mariners | 64c | 56.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mariners | 66c | 45.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…f161backed Angels | 36c | 41.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…8b5ebacked Angels | 36c | 33.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Angels | 31c | 32.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Mariners | 69c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…e065backed Mariners | 66c | 22.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…fd13backed Mariners | 66c | 20.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…0c27backed Mariners | 66c | 19.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…6899backed Mariners | 66c | 19.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…24b9backed Mariners | 65c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.