Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa beat Leicester City?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4984b47b4ab92e021759410534645c554ec79eb5475d8bcbdb5ddadd226c312f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,978 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +269.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…2f80backed No | 49c | 1,415$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…ba60backed Yes | 51c | 1,328$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 29c | 1,136$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.57 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc5…38d9backed No | 45c | 1,019$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.2 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Yes | 55c | 824.99$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 46c | 811.97$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.5 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked No | 50c | 706$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 48c | 666$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.68 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked No | 32c | 658.97$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.17 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…00f3backed Yes | 57c | 524.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.05 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…34a8backed Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +565.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Yes | 50c | 498.64$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.33 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 52c | 457.71$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.7 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…97febacked Yes | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 12c | 390.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 56c | 223.54$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…4b9cbacked Yes | 53c | 189$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 42c | 115.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…3e97backed Yes | 53c | 110.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 56c | 89.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba7…c0edbacked No | 49c | 77.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c5…f001backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 160 | 60%96 W · 64 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…1f51backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…642abacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 43c | 28.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…a12ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa beat Leicester City?this page
- Will Leicester City beat Aston Villa?No won
- Will Leicester City vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.