Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4995b0680ccebe925e47c9528fa5e2dd0028d72287579642bfcb677980dab862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed No | 52c | 489.36$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.09 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 26c | 363.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.02 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 269.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 79c | 201.1$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 31c | 199.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 18c | 191.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 148.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 108.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 69c | 101.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 75c | 97.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 77.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed Yes | 19c | 76.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 53c | 66.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 79c | 51.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 78c | 47.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 37c | 47.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…9752backed No | 74c | 39.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 54c | 22.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 74c | 22.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 59c | 21.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 72c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 16.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.