Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4997d0fc4cc56ad141d21e5a0a1fd04342472c090725c2ce38a529daf667dae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 13c | 457.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 285.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 227.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 209.09$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…1b41backed Yes | 22c | 207.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 21c | 198.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 76c | 185.44$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 15c | 166.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 24c | 166.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 15c | 154.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 106.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 22c | 97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed Yes | 26c | 93.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 17c | 75.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…a2c1backed Yes | 15c | 71.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 75c | 64.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…1291backed Yes | 18c | 61.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 76c | 50.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 77c | 43.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 75c | 41.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 74c | 34.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed No | 78c | 29.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 73c | 28.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 74c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 76c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 75c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.