Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e27632e048b65fb6279dd8dc2f1736d9a44da0a08ef0f29c9390f88e3b4a065
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 30c | 287.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 234$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 227.04$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 72c | 210.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 196.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 187.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 43c | 149.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 73c | 148.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…1822backed Yes | 34c | 130.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 128.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 57c | 127.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 24c | 120.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 46c | 110.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 40c | 98.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 69c | 91.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 79.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 33c | 70.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 67c | 68.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 71c | 68.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 57c | 64.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 64.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…d196backed Yes | 37c | 56.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 54.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…2555backed No | 19c | 54.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 35c | 53.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 30c | 52.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 60c | 51.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 32c | 49.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 51c | 49.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 44.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked Yes | 67c | 44.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 35c | 43.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 72c | 43.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 46c | 43.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 37c | 42.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 41.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 56c | 40.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed Yes | 30c | 40.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 72c | 39.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 43c | 39.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 40c | 38.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 68c | 38.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 37.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 70c | 37.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 34c | 37.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 63c | 36.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 59c | 36.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf228…8accbacked No | 39c | 35.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 33c | 32.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 65c | 29.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 68c | 29.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 70c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 48c | 27.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…5746backed Yes | 45c | 26.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf84f…8a87backed Yes | 48c | 23.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 43c | 23.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 53c | 22.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 22.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 71c | 21.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 71c | 20.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 76c | 19.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 70c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 78c | 14.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.