Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf950630df721af9f2ccff5153aa04da940308febb4cce6c77c1cbdec04ceff47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11c3…2555backed No | 5c | 507.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 304.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.23 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 298.86$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 73c | 206.04$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 72c | 166.6$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 23c | 160.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 32c | 160.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 35c | 150.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 141.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 129.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 25c | 129.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 18c | 127.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.1 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 58c | 127.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 29c | 109.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 19c | 104.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 33c | 103.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 37c | 102.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 97.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 23c | 94.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 91.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 31c | 89.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 72c | 87.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 78.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 78.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…c9b2backed Yes | 42c | 76.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 27c | 71.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed No | 58c | 68.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed No | 77c | 68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 72c | 64.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed Yes | 32c | 63.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 63.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 63.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…cc7dbacked Yes | 31c | 63.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 76c | 60.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 28c | 59.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…d196backed Yes | 35c | 57.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 27c | 55.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 51.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 55c | 50.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 43.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 38c | 41.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 34c | 41.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 36c | 41.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 39.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 31c | 32.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 32.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 30.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 64c | 29.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 46c | 28.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 76c | 27.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 77c | 25.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…64cebacked Yes | 59c | 24.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…3c31backed No | 67c | 24.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 23.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 78c | 20.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 73c | 19.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…2e9cbacked No | 66c | 19.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…ddcebacked Yes | 56c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 72c | 18.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 16.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9d72backed Yes | 79c | 15.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +376.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 76c | 15.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…e65cbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.57per pick | 74cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.