Champions League · resolved market
Will Sporting CP vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4999c762e8fd7515f0d0be5f3a16b462004b63d87494fc0777d225ef402f1709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 0c | 28,284$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…c5f7backed Yes | 45c | 4,235$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 57c | 3,885$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.42 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 28c | 480$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 58c | 436.59$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed No | 72c | 390$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 25c | 156.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x651e…76cebacked No | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…2dc0backed Yes | 27c | 94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2811…2bbdbacked No | 73c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 70c | 66.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e1…c0d9backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…19bbbacked Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…5ffcbacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…3de7backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…3412backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa944…1adebacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3e…0601backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf6…d9adbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…6089backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8950backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb318…4e77backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…d2c9backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…9fa6backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…1865backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 71c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813b…11b7backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d6…76eabacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…b424backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting CP vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-02-11?Yes won
- Will Sporting CP win on 2025-02-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.