Champions League · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-02-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe995e213736dc5b35d3df31b7f68ed49aa64f42cdb34957bde747d89d58c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 7c | 3,871$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.94 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 1c | 3,555$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 65c | 1,520$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.22 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 67c | 1,421$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.26 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 67c | 1,042$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.66 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…e968backed Yes | 33c | 807.85$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ba…1c54backed Yes | 35c | 714.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 33c | 600$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 55c | 470.45$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.3 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 35c | 375.69$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 31c | 352.03$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.34 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…2bd2backed No | 72c | 277.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…2af4backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ead…761fbacked Yes | 32c | 244$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 30c | 236.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.32 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 34c | 223.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.93 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…4056backed Yes | 33c | 201.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 69c | 185.07$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…fcabbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 69c | 99.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdba…4998backed No | 70c | 92.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…9483backed No | 70c | 81.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…6933backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 69c | 69.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387d…297ebacked No | 70c | 68.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…a9dfbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…5947backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 68c | 41.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd1…ee30backed Yes | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…7950backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…37eabacked Yes | 31c | 39.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 51c | 32.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed No | 52c | 29.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-02-11?this page
- Will Sporting CP vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?No won
- Will Sporting CP win on 2025-02-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.