CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49baa3e53edb128d0132811137cb5b4825cea0e9666dd8414e58f72a20dca1b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Omega, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,176 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Omega | 48c | 4,127$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.16 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Omega | 26c | 2,951$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.24 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Ursa | 52c | 2,942$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.36 | 161 | 52.8%85 W · 76 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ursa | 62c | 1,982$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.84 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…90d6backed Omega | 1c | 1,614$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Omega | 21c | 1,463$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Ursa | 52c | 1,008$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.93 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Omega | 41c | 897.76$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.97 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Omega | 31c | 584.01$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ursa | 71c | 576.36$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.87 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Omega | 30c | 366.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Ursa | 65c | 231.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…088dbacked Omega | 8c | 203.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed Omega | 47c | 185.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Ursa | 67c | 161.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…75eebacked Ursa | 53c | 125.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Ursa | 53c | 107$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Omega | 29c | 104.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 392 | 48.7%191 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Omega | 22c | 101.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Ursa | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8381…a304backed Ursa | 78c | 89.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 122 | 73.8%90 W · 32 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Ursa | 67c | 87.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Omega | 30c | 81.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…749cbacked Omega | 49c | 80.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Omega | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Omega | 27c | 72.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked Omega | 23c | 62.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…21c2backed Ursa | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…d031backed Ursa | 72c | 44.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed Omega | 27c | 36.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 163 | 38.7%63 W · 100 L | -13.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Omega | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked Omega | 49c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…0ff3backed Omega | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…48a3backed Ursa | 66c | 28.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Group StageUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Omega (+1.5)Ursa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.